ATRAP- Predict Upredictable
Every day we witness thousands of innovations in the technology world. These innovations comprise nearly each field factually developed. But the one, University of Arizona Professor Jerzy Rozenblit has received a $2.2 million grant to design computer software that will analyze volatile political and military situations for, is absolutely unique.
The software will predict the actions of paramilitary groups, ethnic factions, terrorists and criminal groups, while aiding commanders in devising strategies for stabilizing areas before, during and after conflicts. That is not limit of its capabilities It will have many civilian applications in finance, law enforcement, epidemiology and the aftermath of natural disasters, such as hurricane Katrina, too.
Rozenblit, who holds the Raymond J. Oglethorpe Endowed Chair in the Electrical and Computer Engineering Department at the UA admits that ATRAP - The Asymmetric Threat Response and Analysis Project is a massively complex set of computer algorithms (mathematical procedures) that sift through millions of pieces of data, considering many factors including social, political, cultural, military and media influences.
For accomplishment the work ATRAP will use sophisticated computational methods based on: game theory
co-evolution
genetic development models
Genetic algorithms analyze situations in an evolutionary context, where actions with the highest “fitness factor” gravitate toward one another, produce offspring and eventually rise to the top.
The algorithms will recognize links and patterns within the data and to find connections.“The computer can look at very, very complex data sets that as an individual or even as a group of individuals, you could never analyze,” said Brian Ten Eyck, ATRAP project manager and associate director for research support in ECE. “The computer can bring the patterns and connections to the surface and can predict scenarios that might never occur to human analysts.”
According to the “Inside Arizona Business” Deep Blue, the first computer program to beat a world chess champion, is not exact but a good example of how ATRAP can respond to changing factors, Ten Eyck explained. “Every time its opponent made a move, Deep Blue recalculated all the possibilities and likely courses of action, eventually settling on the fittest move that would achieve its goal of winning the game.”
Rozenblit said: In unstable areas, winning often means establishing an environment in which the factions co-exist in a win-win situation or at least in an equilibrium in which there are no rewards, and some penalties, for disturbing the status quo. Ultimately, the software program will be designed to display data in graphical, 3-D and other forms that can be quickly grasped, allowing decision makers to rapidly respond to changing situations, Rozenblit said.
The goal is to handle conflict areas in a manner that leads to stability and support so war is not necessary,” Rozenblit said. “That’s the philosophy behind much of the ATRAP effort.” Conflicts like Kosovo and Somalia that need quick response emphasizes the need for the high quality harnessing in order to react very rapidly. Parallel computing is the best way to response to the situation timely.
The benefit of the software relates to the Students and Local Contractors, too. As Rozenblit said “There is a dire need for engineers with expertise in this area and our graduate students and undergraduates are in great demand.” The evidence to this statement is that one student who recently graduated with a bachelor’s degree after doing research related to ATRAP was hired at an annual starting salary of $90,000.
This article has originally been posted on BLOGVASION.COM
